These 7 things should you consider!
Less than a week ago I did a review of the crypto year 2019. Now is the time to make a preview for 2020 and to focus on the things you should not miss.
1. Bitcoin Halving
The Bitcoin Halving around May 15, 2020 (the exact day will be postponed by plus/minus a few days) is the decisive crypto event in the coming year. The fact that only half of the bitcoins will then be distributed will have a dramatic effect on the price. The only question is when and how much. Personally, I find it very difficult to make accurate price forecasts for 2020 due to numerous influencing factors, which I will mention later. Therefore I will keep it short with a “we will see a new all time high at Bitcoin in 2020” and prefer to discuss the details in smaller groups where people can exchange information with more precise backgrounds on a basis of trust. In summary, I’m extremely bullish about Bitcoin, not only price wise but also technically: Schnorr signatures, Lightning Network, Taproot, and much more.
2. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) on Bitcoin
Already in 2019, DeFi was the new hot topic and I think this will increase in 2020, especially because teams (like ourselves with the DeFi Chain: www.DeFiChain.io) will bring DeFi to Bitcoin.
3. Central Bank Coins go live (Libra, China, EU, USA..)
2019 was also the start of this trend, and in 2020 it will intensify again as the first central bank coins go live. I also think Libra (in whatever form) will go live. This brings an incredible seriousness to the market and will create enormous attention, especially from new customers.
4. Many (not all) Altcoins are dying
Altcoins will come under increasing pressure. Investors will understand that most coins are still far too expensive, even though the coins are already 99% off the all time high. The price will continue to fall compared to Bitcoin; Exchanges, which are also under increasing pressure due to price wars, will delist more and more coins. Similar to 2015/2016, 99% of the old coins will be completely sorted out. New projects will be added instead and create new hypes – the story rhymes.
5. US Election
While in H1 2020 the Bitcoin Halving will be the topic in the press, the second half of the year will be dominated by the US presidential election. If I had to place a bet today, I would say that Trump will most likely win. The numbers, data, facts clearly speak for it. This will probably be positive for the markets.
6. (Still) No Economic Crisis
Not only because of the Trump re-election, but also based on past analysis, I don’t think there will be a stock market crash in 2020. Normally such a crash follows about 18-24 months after a yield curve inversion, which we had in summer 2019. So the crash is very likely to happen in 2021, which would be consistent with my expectation that 2021 will be a hype year for Bitcoin.
7. Bitcoin ETF possible for the first time
For the first time I see it “more likely” than “not” that a Bitcoin ETF will come – over 51%. The reason is that in 2020 we will see an enormous number of structured products around Bitcoin. Bakkt has done good groundwork and there will be some futures around mining-hedging.
To sum it up, I don’t think we will see an extreme bull run in 2020, but rather a positive trend like in late 2016 / early 2017. Maybe a run can start at the end of 2020, but the rest will be like 2019 with strong waves and a positive end.
So we can really look forward to 2020!
Have I forgotten something or do you see something different? Please let me know here on Social Media.
Your Julian
